Fed funds upper bound stays priced at 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080701",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after September 2026 meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 99% above 3.50%, only 35% above 3.75%.",
    "July payrolls shed 23,000 jobs versus a forecast of plus 95,000, the Kalshi distribution is consistent with a hold at the next meeting.",
    "Kalshi ladder implies nearly zero probability of a hike to 4.00% or above, with all strikes from 4.00% to 5.25% at 1%.",
    "CME FedWatch puts September hold odds at 60%; Kalshi's implied distribution aligns closely, confirming cross-venue consensus on no September hike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Davis Giangiulio",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A weaker-than-expected July jobs report caused traders to sharply reduce odds of a September Fed rate hike.",
      "publisher": "Davis Giangiulio",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Federal Reserve's post-September meeting announcement; current distribution rules out any hike scenario."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Davis Giangiulio: Odds the Fed hikes in September tumble following big July jobs miss",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/odds-the-fed-hikes-in-september-tumble-following-big-july-jobs-miss.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}