Fed funds upper bound firmly priced at 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080703",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T09:34:14.933Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (next meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 98% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%, implying the upper bound is firmly expected in the 3.50-3.75% range.",
    "Record equity close and fading rate-hike bets align with the ladder's sharp drop at the 3.75% strike.",
    "The 1% probability above 4.00% shows virtually no pricing for resumed hikes near-term, consistent with the weak July payroll data.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's published policy rate decision; next FOMC meeting outcome is the settlement trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Globe and Mail",
          "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/market-news/article-premarket-stocks-dollar-stall-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-oil-gains-as-gulf/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The S&P 500 closed at a record high after the soft jobs report eased rate-hike concerns.",
      "publisher": "The Globe and Mail",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T09:34:14.933Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/market-news/article-premarket-stocks-dollar-stall-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-oil-gains-as-gulf/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution via ClearMarket reference layer; the sharp cliff at 3.75% is the key market read."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Globe and Mail: TSX and S&P 500 close at record highs as Fed rate-hike bets ebb",
      "url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/market-news/article-premarket-stocks-dollar-stall-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-oil-gains-as-gulf/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T09:34:14.933Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}