Near-term hike consensus hardens on Waller urgency signal

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071301",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, pricing 60% above 3.75% but only 8% above 4.0%.",
    "Fed Governor Christopher Waller's near-term hike call is broadly consistent with a market-implied range just above current levels, not pricing a dramatic overshoot.",
    "A companion near-term ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) prices only 36% above 3.75%, showing the market sees meaningful but not certain follow-through on Waller's urgency.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; any July or September hike that clears 4.0% would sharply reprice the tail, currently at just 8%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "wolfstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/13/fed-should-hike-in-the-near-term-if-cpi-ppi-this-week-are-hot-feds-waller-so-at-the-july-meeting-treasury-yields-jump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed should hike rates 'in the near term' if CPI and PPI data this week come in hot, signaling urgency ahead of the July meeting.",
      "publisher": "wolfstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/13/fed-should-hike-in-the-near-term-if-cpi-ppi-this-week-are-hot-feds-waller-so-at-the-july-meeting-treasury-yields-jump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows the market absorbing Waller's hawkish signal into a 3.75-4.0% modal range, not pricing an aggressive multi-hike cycle."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "wolfstreet.com: Fed Should Hike “in the Near Term” if CPI & PPI this Week Are “Hot”: F",
      "url": "https://wolfstreet.com/2026/07/13/fed-should-hike-in-the-near-term-if-cpi-ppi-this-week-are-hot-feds-waller-so-at-the-july-meeting-treasury-yields-jump/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}