Fed funds upper bound consensus anchors at 3.75 to 4.0 percent

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  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062607",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds rate upper bound post-June 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-June Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 86% above 3.50%, 55% above 3.75%, only 36% above 4.00%.",
    "The Reuters economist consensus for a hold is directionally consistent with the ladder's modal outcome around 3.75-4.0%, below the current 4.25-4.50% range.",
    "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari penciling in one hike is not reflected in the ladder, which prices only 36% above 4.0%; market is discounting his hawkish dot.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in a single meeting at 7%, and cutting before 2027 at 24%, consistent with the ladder implying gradual easing not aggressive cuts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
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      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://kelo.com/2026/06/26/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-economists-say-defying-market-bets-for-hikes-reuters-poll/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
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        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Reuters poll of economists shows the Fed will hold rates for the rest of 2026, defying market bets for hikes, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari separately penciling in one hike.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://kelo.com/2026/06/26/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-economists-say-defying-market-bets-for-hikes-reuters-poll/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
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      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve; the distribution shows economists' hold view and Kashkari's hike view are both being partially faded by the market."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: Fed to hold rates this year, economists say, defying market bets for h",
      "url": "https://kelo.com/2026/06/26/fed-to-hold-rates-this-year-economists-say-defying-market-bets-for-hikes-reuters-poll/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
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