Fed funds upper bound seen staying near 3.75-4 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090902",
  "published_at": "2026-09-09T13:38:41.003Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (next meeting, post-2026)",
  "bullets": [
    "The rate ladder prices the upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 93% above 3.50%, 79% above 3.75%, but only 37% above 4.0%.",
    "The Reuters poll consensus for a hold is broadly consistent with the ladder's center of gravity near 3.75-4.0%, though the rising minority view for a hike aligns with the 37% probability priced above 4.0%.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract puts 76% on the Fed raising rates at some point in 2026-2028, implying the terminal question is one of timing rather than direction.",
    "Resolution ties to the actual Federal Open Market Committee statement; a hike above 4.0% would need to clear the 37% hurdle priced by the ladder today."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
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      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Indradip Ghosh",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-steady-rest-2026-rising-number-analysts-see-least-one-hike-2026-09-09/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
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      "significance": {
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        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Reuters poll of economists found the Fed is expected to hold rates steady through the rest of 2026, though a rising number of analysts now see at least one hike.",
      "publisher": "Indradip Ghosh",
      "published_at": "2026-09-09T13:38:41.003Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-steady-rest-2026-rising-number-analysts-see-least-one-hike-2026-09-09/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
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      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution spans 2.75% through 5.25% and resolves via the official FOMC rate decision; the 4.0% strike at 37% is the key inflection between hold and hike scenarios."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Indradip Ghosh: Fed to hold rates steady in rest of 2026; rising number of analysts se",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-hold-rates-steady-rest-2026-rising-number-analysts-see-least-one-hike-2026-09-09/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-09T13:38:41.003Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
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