Fed funds above 4.25% stays a long shot after Warsh silence

Name: Fed funds above 4.25% stays a long shot after Warsh silence
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026101501 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-10-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices the fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 91% above 4.0% but only 15% above 4.25%.
Warsh gave no rate guidance, and the market is consistent with that ambiguity, a hike to 4.25% or above remains a distinct minority view despite hot CPI and PPI.
The sharp probability cliff between 4.0% (91%) and 4.25% (15%) signals the market treats one more hike as the base but rules out an aggressive step higher.
A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices the same upper-bound question even more conservatively, collapsing to 13% above 4.0%, suggesting some resolution-date disagreement across contracts.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next rate hike direction despite two hot inflation prints this week raising expectations of an earlier move.exa_search → Steve Kopack · as_of 2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00
publisher: Steve Kopack
published_at: 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder; the 76-percentage-point gap between 4.0% and 4.25% is the sharpest cliff in the distribution and is the key market read on Warsh's silence.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26dec/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101501",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound (post-meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 91% above 4.0% but only 15% above 4.25%.",
    "Warsh gave no rate guidance, and the market is consistent with that ambiguity, a hike to 4.25% or above remains a distinct minority view despite hot CPI and PPI.",
    "The sharp probability cliff between 4.0% (91%) and 4.25% (15%) signals the market treats one more hike as the base but rules out an aggressive step higher.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices the same upper-bound question even more conservatively, collapsing to 13% above 4.0%, suggesting some resolution-date disagreement across contracts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Steve Kopack",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next rate hike direction despite two hot inflation prints this week raising expectations of an earlier move.",
      "publisher": "Steve Kopack",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 76-percentage-point gap between 4.0% and 4.25% is the sharpest cliff in the distribution and is the key market read on Warsh's silence."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Steve Kopack: Will the Fed raise interest rates? Kevin Warsh gives no clues",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T12:59:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101501 published 2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-752cbac40cb… ← underlying event all signals →