Fed funds upper bound seen holding in the 4.00-4.25 percent range
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026092602 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-09-26
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range: 89% above 4.00% but only 48% above 4.25%, with a sharp falloff to 9% above 4.50%.
- Strong PMI and hawkish Fed signals align with the market holding the upper bound in this range rather than pricing imminent cuts.
- The steep drop in probability above 4.25% suggests the market sees a ceiling there, even with yields climbing.
- Fed officials' updated 2027 rate forecast of 4.1%, up from 3.6% in June, is broadly consistent with the current ladder distribution.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- Hawkish Fed officials and a surge in PMI to a five-year high have markets pricing a higher-for-longer rate path.exa_search → Nasdaq · as_of 2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Nasdaq
- published_at
- 2026-09-26T07:46:09.422Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Ladder resolves via Federal Reserve policy announcement; the 4.00-4.25% implied range is the modal outcome per current strike probabilities.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxfed-26dec/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-00-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-00-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-4-00-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026092602",
"published_at": "2026-09-26T07:46:09.422Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range: 89% above 4.00% but only 48% above 4.25%, with a sharp falloff to 9% above 4.50%.",
"Strong PMI and hawkish Fed signals align with the market holding the upper bound in this range rather than pricing imminent cuts.",
"The steep drop in probability above 4.25% suggests the market sees a ceiling there, even with yields climbing.",
"Fed officials' updated 2027 rate forecast of 4.1%, up from 3.6% in June, is broadly consistent with the current ladder distribution."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Nasdaq",
"source_url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/economic-institute/chartstopper-092526",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "Hawkish Fed officials and a surge in PMI to a five-year high have markets pricing a higher-for-longer rate path.",
"publisher": "Nasdaq",
"published_at": "2026-09-26T07:46:09.422Z",
"source_url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/economic-institute/chartstopper-092526"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Ladder resolves via Federal Reserve policy announcement; the 4.00-4.25% implied range is the modal outcome per current strike probabilities."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Nasdaq: Chartstopper: September 25, 2026",
"url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/economic-institute/chartstopper-092526",
"published_at": "2026-09-26T07:46:09.422Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1