Fed funds upper bound consensus anchors at 3.75 to 4.0 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062602",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound after next Fed decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75% but only 36% above 4.0%, and just 8% above 4.25%.",
    "The market-implied range is broadly consistent with economists' hold view but stops short of fully pricing the two hikes that financial markets reportedly expect.",
    "The sharp drop from 65% at 3.75% to 8% at 4.25% shows the market sees hikes as a low-probability tail, not a base case.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Fed cutting more than 25 basis points in a single meeting sits at only 7%, reinforcing the market's view that the next move, if any, is a modest hike or hold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradevae.com",
          "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/economists-predict-fed-will-pause-rate-moves-for-remainder-of-year-despite-market-betting-on-hikes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Reuters poll shows economists expect the Fed to hold rates through year-end, while financial markets price in two hikes as inflation runs above 4%.",
      "publisher": "tradevae.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
      "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/economists-predict-fed-will-pause-rate-moves-for-remainder-of-year-despite-market-betting-on-hikes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract on Fed funds upper bound; the distribution reveals a market anchored near 3.75-4.0%, diverging from the two-hike scenario cited by financial markets in the Reuters report."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradevae.com: Economists Predict Fed Will Pause Rate Moves for Remainder of Year Des",
      "url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/economists-predict-fed-will-pause-rate-moves-for-remainder-of-year-despite-market-betting-on-hikes/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T10:46:13.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}