Fed funds upper bound stays near 4 percent after October hold
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026110202 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-11-02
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder puts the federal funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range, with 74% above 4.00% but only 3% above 4.25%.
- The 10-2 hold vote and 3.6% PCE print are consistent with market pricing: a hike to 4.25% or above is nearly fully faded at 3%.
- The sharp drop from 74% at 4.00% to 3% at 4.25% signals the market treats 4.00% as the credible ceiling, not a stepping stone.
- Resolution via the next FOMC policy statement; two dissenting votes in favor of a hike add a small residual risk premium to the 4.25% strike.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 on October 28 to hold rates as September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% and real consumption stalled.exa_search → Goodman · as_of 2026-11-03T07:48:22+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Goodman
- published_at
- 2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi ladder spans 2.75% to 5.25% with ten strikes; the implied range compresses tightly between the 4.00% and 4.25% rungs.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxfed-26dec/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-02") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026110202",
"published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (next meeting)",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder puts the federal funds upper bound in the 4.00-4.25% range, with 74% above 4.00% but only 3% above 4.25%.",
"The 10-2 hold vote and 3.6% PCE print are consistent with market pricing: a hike to 4.25% or above is nearly fully faded at 3%.",
"The sharp drop from 74% at 4.00% to 3% at 4.25% signals the market treats 4.00% as the credible ceiling, not a stepping stone.",
"Resolution via the next FOMC policy statement; two dissenting votes in favor of a hike add a small residual risk premium to the 4.25% strike."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Goodman",
"source_url": "https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261102-fed/",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T07:48:22+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 on October 28 to hold rates as September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% and real consumption stalled.",
"publisher": "Goodman",
"published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261102-fed/"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi ladder spans 2.75% to 5.25% with ten strikes; the implied range compresses tightly between the 4.00% and 4.25% rungs."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Goodman: November 2 | Fed Weekly: 10, 2 Vote Pauses Rate Hikes as September PCE",
"url": "https://www.goodman-macro.com/en/articles/20261102-fed/",
"published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T07:48:22+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1