Odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026 stay near 50%

Name: Odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026 stay near 50%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 56%

record: CMSIG2026082303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4 | published: 2026-08-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract puts a 56% probability on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate in 2026, a slim majority.
Warsh's keynote tone is the pivotal near-term catalyst; the market is priced for genuine uncertainty, not a clear hike or hold signal.
The dollar trading at a three-month low against the euro implies currency markets are not fully pricing Fed hawkishness, creating a potential divergence with this 56% reading.
Resolves via UMA oracle based on Federal Reserve official rate decisions through year-end 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads into his first Jackson Hole keynote with the dollar at a three-month low and futures pricing a September rate hike at 36%, as inflation remains above target.exa_search → Anthony Bull · as_of 2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00
publisher: Anthony Bull
published_at: 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://cambridgecurrencies.com/weekly-currency-forecast-24-august-2026/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket hosts this full-year hike contract at 56%; the Kalshi forward-meeting ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) at 54% above 3.75% is broadly consistent, suggesting cross-venue alignment around near-even odds.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-56-2026-08-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-56-2026-08-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-56-2026-08-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082303",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract puts a 56% probability on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate in 2026, a slim majority.",
    "Warsh's keynote tone is the pivotal near-term catalyst; the market is priced for genuine uncertainty, not a clear hike or hold signal.",
    "The dollar trading at a three-month low against the euro implies currency markets are not fully pricing Fed hawkishness, creating a potential divergence with this 56% reading.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle based on Federal Reserve official rate decisions through year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anthony Bull",
          "source_url": "https://cambridgecurrencies.com/weekly-currency-forecast-24-august-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads into his first Jackson Hole keynote with the dollar at a three-month low and futures pricing a September rate hike at 36%, as inflation remains above target.",
      "publisher": "Anthony Bull",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cambridgecurrencies.com/weekly-currency-forecast-24-august-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket hosts this full-year hike contract at 56%; the Kalshi forward-meeting ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) at 54% above 3.75% is broadly consistent, suggesting cross-venue alignment around near-even odds."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anthony Bull: US Dollar Forecast: Week of 24 August 2026, Jackson Hole, PCE and GBP",
      "url": "https://cambridgecurrencies.com/weekly-currency-forecast-24-august-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-25T08:36:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082303 published 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-8a215caf055… ← underlying event all signals →