Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (156D) ]
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026 | 2026-12-09 | 58.0% | $72K | $1.76M | C | 0x80b3af…d82b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm sources (3)
- federalreserve.gov venue-listed
- the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed rate hike in 2026 consensus fractures near coin-flip Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices a 51% chance the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate in 2026.
- Rising Treasury yields driven by geopolitical risk premium and oil price pressure are consistent with a market nearly split on Fed action.
- Kalshi separately prices only 8% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that dovish pivot odds are low.
- A separate Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range, anchoring the near-term policy path well below current market rates.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 holds below coin-flip despite hawkish signals Polymarket 40%
- Polymarket prices at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 at 40%, below even odds despite Warsh's hawkish framing.
- Warsh's hike-before-cut posture is not fully endorsed by markets, which still price a hike as the minority outcome.
- A companion Kalshi contract prices just 7% on a hike larger than 25 basis points in a single meeting, suggesting any move would be measured.
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed cut before 2027 sits at 28%, meaning markets price neither a hike nor a cut as highly likely this year.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-rate-hike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
"slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"economic-policy",
"fed-rates",
"macro-single",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1761089,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}