Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (127D) ]
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026 | 2026-12-09 | 71.0% | $95K | $6.29M | A | 0x80b3af…d82b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm sources (3) · single authority
federalreserve.gov committed source Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored after jobs print Polymarket 71%
- Polymarket puts 71% odds on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate at some point in 2026.
- Blowout August jobs print of 162,000 is consistent with the elevated hike probability; market pricing aligns with the hawkish news.
- Stocks fell on the data, with the Dow dropping, as higher-for-longer expectations weigh on risk assets.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; a September Fed meeting without a hike would still leave the 2026-full-year question open.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays more likely than not Polymarket 67%
- Polymarket puts 67% on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate at some point in 2026, a majority view despite the September hold signal.
- Waller's pause signal reduced near-term hike odds, but the 67% annual hike probability shows the market still expects tightening to occur within the year.
- The Kalshi September ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) prices only 2% above 4.00% for September, but this Polymarket contract implies a later-year hike remains consensus.
- Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; resolution requires an official Federal Open Market Committee rate decision raising the federal funds rate at any 2026 meeting.
- Markets back a 2026 Fed hike at roughly 3-in-4 odds Polymarket 72%
- The Polymarket contract on a 2026 Fed rate hike sits at 72%, a clear majority but well short of certainty.
- Slowing factory orders cut against the hike case on growth grounds, yet the Prices Index holding at 71.1 keeps inflation pressure alive and supports the 72% read.
- Fed Governor Michael Barr's conditional hike endorsement and Warsh's Jackson Hole signal together align with the market's majority-but-not-certain pricing.
- Resolution via UMA oracle on whether the Fed actually raises its benchmark rate at any 2026 meeting; the September meeting in roughly two weeks is the nearest trigger.
- Markets put two-in-three odds on a 2026 Fed rate hike Polymarket 66%
- The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 66%, reflecting majority-but-not-certain consensus.
- Warsh's explicit hike signaling is consistent with the 66% pricing, though markets are not treating a hike as a done deal.
- The companion Kalshi contract on rate hikes sits at 68%, showing tight cross-venue agreement and no meaningful arbitrage gap.
- Both contracts resolve via official Federal Reserve rate decisions; a September hike announcement would likely push both toward full pricing.
- Odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026 stay near 50% Polymarket 56%
- The Polymarket contract puts a 56% probability on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate in 2026, a slim majority.
- Warsh's keynote tone is the pivotal near-term catalyst; the market is priced for genuine uncertainty, not a clear hike or hold signal.
- The dollar trading at a three-month low against the euro implies currency markets are not fully pricing Fed hawkishness, creating a potential divergence with this 56% reading.
- Resolves via UMA oracle based on Federal Reserve official rate decisions through year-end 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-rate-hike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
"slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"economic-policy",
"fed-rates",
"macro-single",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6290995,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}