Markets put 3-in-4 odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072401",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T10:00:13.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 73% probability on the Fed raising its benchmark rate at some point in 2026.",
    "Experts widely expect a hold at the July meeting, yet the Polymarket contract stays near 73%, the market prices a hike as likely before year-end, not necessarily now.",
    "The ladder market (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) implies the current Fed funds upper bound sits in the 3.50-3.75% range, with only 22% probability above 3.75%, consistent with a near-term hold view.",
    "Kalshi (CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42) prices a hike at 72%, nearly identical to Polymarket, cross-venue alignment suggests little arbitrage gap on the annual call."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-meeting/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "CBS News surveys experts ahead of the July FOMC meeting, with consensus expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at this meeting.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T10:00:13.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-meeting/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; both venues quote near-identical 72-73% on a 2026 hike."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Here is what experts pr",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-decision-july-meeting/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T10:00:13.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}