Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored

Name: Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 95%

record: CMSIG2026091601 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4 | published: 2026-09-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 95%, consistent with today's confirmed quarter-point move to 3.75-4.00%.
The hike is the Fed's first since 2023 and came despite a sustained pressure campaign from Trump administration officials demanding a cut.
The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at just 4%, reinforcing that markets see no reversal imminent.
The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 4% companion Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's own rate decision record.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%, defying public pressure from President Donald Trump, Vice President Vance, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.exa_search → startupfortune.com · as_of 2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00
publisher: startupfortune.com
published_at: 2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://startupfortune.com/the-fed-raises-rates-to-4-anyway-defying-trumps-pressure-campaign/

[02] pm_response

interp: The Polymarket contract at 95% is fully consistent with the confirmed hike; the companion Kalshi cut contract at 4% underscores markets see no near-term policy reversal.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x80b3af88cb991980e8da1ce86b9794a0957f96ec98c29319dd7ba65e9744d82b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-95-2026-09-16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-95-2026-09-16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-hike-in-2026-polymarket-95-2026-09-16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091601",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 95%, consistent with today's confirmed quarter-point move to 3.75-4.00%.",
    "The hike is the Fed's first since 2023 and came despite a sustained pressure campaign from Trump administration officials demanding a cut.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at just 4%, reinforcing that markets see no reversal imminent.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 4% companion Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's own rate decision record."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "startupfortune.com",
          "source_url": "https://startupfortune.com/the-fed-raises-rates-to-4-anyway-defying-trumps-pressure-campaign/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%, defying public pressure from President Donald Trump, Vice President Vance, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.",
      "publisher": "startupfortune.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://startupfortune.com/the-fed-raises-rates-to-4-anyway-defying-trumps-pressure-campaign/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract at 95% is fully consistent with the confirmed hike; the companion Kalshi cut contract at 4% underscores markets see no near-term policy reversal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "startupfortune.com: The Fed Raises Rates to 4% Anyway, Defying Trump's Pressure Campaign -",
      "url": "https://startupfortune.com/the-fed-raises-rates-to-4-anyway-defying-trumps-pressure-campaign/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091601 published 2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-75b2a992028… ← underlying event all signals →