ICE removals in FY2026 seen near 400K-450K, well above floor

Name: ICE removals in FY2026 seen near 400K-450K, well above floor
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092707 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842 | published: 2026-09-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices ICE removals in the 400K-450K range: 96% above 400K, collapsing to 16% above 450K and only 5% above 500K.
Senator Jim Banks's legislative push to lock in enforcement levels is consistent with a market that sees removals running well above historical norms but plateauing near 400K-450K.
The sharp drop from 96% to 16% between the 400K and 450K strikes implies the market sees the current pace as near its ceiling absent new statutory authority.
Resolution is via FY2026 official ICE removal data; fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final figure is imminent.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Senator Jim Banks is pushing to codify Trump's immigration enforcement into statute, warning executive-only enforcement could be reversed by a future administration.exa_search → foxnews.com · as_of 2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00
publisher: foxnews.com
published_at: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolution source is unspecified beyond FY2026 ICE data; the fiscal year close on September 30 makes this a near-term settlement event.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxdeportations-27jan01/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092707",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
  "event_question": "FY2026 ICE removals total",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices ICE removals in the 400K-450K range: 96% above 400K, collapsing to 16% above 450K and only 5% above 500K.",
    "Senator Jim Banks's legislative push to lock in enforcement levels is consistent with a market that sees removals running well above historical norms but plateauing near 400K-450K.",
    "The sharp drop from 96% to 16% between the 400K and 450K strikes implies the market sees the current pace as near its ceiling absent new statutory authority.",
    "Resolution is via FY2026 official ICE removal data; fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final figure is imminent."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "foxnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senator Jim Banks is pushing to codify Trump's immigration enforcement into statute, warning executive-only enforcement could be reversed by a future administration.",
      "publisher": "foxnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolution source is unspecified beyond FY2026 ICE data; the fiscal year close on September 30 makes this a near-term settlement event."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxdeportations-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "foxnews.com: Sen. Jim Banks pushes to codify Trump immigration crackdown into law |",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/massive-ice-sweep-fuels-gop-push-lock-trump-immigration-crackdown-law",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092707 published 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-e02e56e3f58… ← underlying event all signals →