ICE removals in FY2026 seen above 400,000 but below 500,000

Name: ICE removals in FY2026 seen above 400,000 but below 500,000
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026102908 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842 | published: 2026-10-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Prediction market ladder implies FY2026 ICE removals in the 400,000-450,000 range: 94% above 400K but only 45% above 450K.
The 22% probability above 500K shows the market treats a half-million removals as unlikely, even amid the enforcement surge AP documents.
The 98% probability above 300K confirms the market fully prices in a historically high removal year; the debate is only about the upper end of the range.
Resolves via official DHS or ICE fiscal-year statistics; the FY2026 close provides a clean settlement date.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: AP reports Trump's immigration crackdown is generating political backlash ahead of midterms, with voters souring on enforcement policies.exa_search → Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi · as_of 2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00
publisher: Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi
published_at: 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder contract; no venue attribution available in the data, but the distribution is internally consistent and anchors the immigration enforcement debate.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxdeportations-27jan01/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fy2026-ice-removals-implied-400k-450k-ladder-2026-10-29")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102908",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
  "target_event_slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
  "event_question": "FY2026 ICE removals",
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder implies FY2026 ICE removals in the 400,000-450,000 range: 94% above 400K but only 45% above 450K.",
    "The 22% probability above 500K shows the market treats a half-million removals as unlikely, even amid the enforcement surge AP documents.",
    "The 98% probability above 300K confirms the market fully prices in a historically high removal year; the debate is only about the upper end of the range.",
    "Resolves via official DHS or ICE fiscal-year statistics; the FY2026 close provides a clean settlement date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "AP reports Trump's immigration crackdown is generating political backlash ahead of midterms, with voters souring on enforcement policies.",
      "publisher": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contract; no venue attribution available in the data, but the distribution is internally consistent and anchors the immigration enforcement debate."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxdeportations-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXDEPORTATIONS-27JAN01-T450000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tim Sullivan, Nicholas Riccardi: Immigration crackdowns lose political power as voters sour on Trump's",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-immigration-politics-ice-democrats-deportations-973ea68bd778fbfd7f38209f65bb351c",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102908 published 2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4f94c662c16… ← underlying event all signals →