Gas above $4.00 by year-end nears full pricing despite inflation pain

Name: Gas above $4.00 by year-end nears full pricing despite inflation pain
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026061105 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1 | published: 2026-06-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder implies average US gas price near $4.60-$4.80 by year-end, with 99% above $4.00 but only 35% above $4.80.
The near-certain $4.00 floor is consistent with the news that May consumer prices hit a three-year high driven by energy.
The sharp drop from 51% above $4.60 to 33% above $5.00 marks the key market conviction boundary for sustained high prices.
The Iran peace deal trajectory is a direct cross-market factor: a signed deal could push oil lower and soften gas price expectations toward the lower end of the implied range.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Consumer prices hit a three-year high in May and Trump dismissed inflation concerns, while households face over $3,100 in added annual costs.exa_search → Jessica Dickler · as_of 2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00
publisher: Jessica Dickler
published_at: 2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-inflation-cpi.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder resolves via reported average US gas price benchmarks; the $4.60-$4.80 implied range reflects energy-driven CPI without a full oil shock.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxaaagasmax-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-00-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-4-60-4-80-2026-06-11/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-above-4-00-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-4-60-4-80-2026-06-11.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("gas-above-4-00-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-4-60-4-80-2026-06-11")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061105",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F6046BB5W1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmax-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Average US gas price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies average US gas price near $4.60-$4.80 by year-end, with 99% above $4.00 but only 35% above $4.80.",
    "The near-certain $4.00 floor is consistent with the news that May consumer prices hit a three-year high driven by energy.",
    "The sharp drop from 51% above $4.60 to 33% above $5.00 marks the key market conviction boundary for sustained high prices.",
    "The Iran peace deal trajectory is a direct cross-market factor: a signed deal could push oil lower and soften gas price expectations toward the lower end of the implied range."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jessica Dickler",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-inflation-cpi.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Consumer prices hit a three-year high in May and Trump dismissed inflation concerns, while households face over $3,100 in added annual costs.",
      "publisher": "Jessica Dickler",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-inflation-cpi.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via reported average US gas price benchmarks; the $4.60-$4.80 implied range reflects energy-driven CPI without a full oil shock."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxaaagasmax-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-4.80",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jessica Dickler: Trump might 'love the inflation,' but consumers feel the pain: Experts",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-inflation-cpi.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061105 published 2026-06-11T13:49:36.000Z signature sha256-d2c16a2f7b5… ← underlying event all signals →