Georgia governor race winner odds hold near even

Name: Georgia governor race winner odds hold near even
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 38%

record: CMSIG2026081704 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-L03QNMYNS5 | published: 2026-08-17

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket contract on a winner being determined in the Georgia governor election sits at 38%, with trading volume up 1,507% day over day.
The extraordinary volume surge signals the Georgia election security story is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.
The 38% price likely reflects uncertainty about whether the election result will be officially certified without legal challenge, not the candidate outcome itself.
Companion Polymarket contract on the Michigan governor race going to the Democratic candidate (CM-EVT-GTDLXYMZQ7) sits at 14%, showing Midwest red-state contests are also being priced cautiously.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: A Princeton researcher used AI to identify how over 2,200 Georgia voters cast ballots in May primaries, exposing ballot secrecy weaknesses that could affect the upcoming general election.exa_search → Caleb Groves · as_of 2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00
publisher: Caleb Groves
published_at: 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the resolution question turns on whether a winner is officially determined, making election integrity disputes a direct price driver.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/georgia-governor-winner-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x71c05b735300b6087ff5588bcc7e83fecf009293d794f613c63c92ea8a16fb2b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("georgia-governor-race-winner-polymarket-38-2026-08-17")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081704",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L03QNMYNS5",
  "target_event_slug": "georgia-governor-winner-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a winner determined in the Georgia Governor Election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on a winner being determined in the Georgia governor election sits at 38%, with trading volume up 1,507% day over day.",
    "The extraordinary volume surge signals the Georgia election security story is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.",
    "The 38% price likely reflects uncertainty about whether the election result will be officially certified without legal challenge, not the candidate outcome itself.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on the Michigan governor race going to the Democratic candidate (CM-EVT-GTDLXYMZQ7) sits at 14%, showing Midwest red-state contests are also being priced cautiously."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caleb Groves",
          "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A Princeton researcher used AI to identify how over 2,200 Georgia voters cast ballots in May primaries, exposing ballot secrecy weaknesses that could affect the upcoming general election.",
      "publisher": "Caleb Groves",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the resolution question turns on whether a winner is officially determined, making election integrity disputes a direct price driver."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/georgia-governor-winner-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caleb Groves: Georgia passed on election upgrades. A Princeton researcher exploited",
      "url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/08/georgia-passed-on-election-upgrades-a-princeton-researcher-exploited-weaknesses-in-system/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081704 published 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-b1d84885246… ← underlying event all signals →