U.S. stake in GlobalFoundries stays near 75% but builds higher on one venue

Name: U.S. stake in GlobalFoundries stays near 75% but builds higher on one venue
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-15T08:23:11+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 80% vs Polymarket 85%

record: CMSIG20260815DV05 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-TDJHRGQTY1 | published: 2026-08-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices U.S. government equity stake in GlobalFoundries at 85%; Kalshi at 80%, a 5pp gap.
Polymarket is the higher venue; Kalshi volume is $22.5K vs Polymarket's $6.1K, Kalshi has the larger book here.
With Kalshi holding the deeper book and lower price, Polymarket's thin market may be nudging the odds upward.
Resolves YES if any U.S. federal entity acquires above 0% equity in GlobalFoundries before 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $229 kalshi_vol_24h: $343

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-GFS
venue_b: polymarket · 0x29de69eea09afcb0cde8301eca3e6fcabf826dcb8a8dafacc0d20f3404a735ff

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k80-p85/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k80-p85.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("globalfoundries-us-government-stake-k80-p85")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260815DV05",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T08:23:11+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TDJHRGQTY1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxusacompanystake-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices U.S. government equity stake in GlobalFoundries at 85%; Kalshi at 80%, a 5pp gap.",
    "Polymarket is the higher venue; Kalshi volume is $22.5K vs Polymarket's $6.1K, Kalshi has the larger book here.",
    "With Kalshi holding the deeper book and lower price, Polymarket's thin market may be nudging the odds upward.",
    "Resolves YES if any U.S. federal entity acquires above 0% equity in GlobalFoundries before 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-64E6FFD2DB); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 229,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 343.2
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-GFS",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will any part of the United States federal government take a",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/globalfoundries-us-government-stake-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:23:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260815DV05 published 2026-08-15T08:23:11+00:00 signature sha256-729e65b4d61… ← underlying event all signals →