Republican win in CO-05 holds below 30%

Name: Republican win in CO-05 holds below 30%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 28%

record: CMSIG2026100606 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FMXJH0P4G0 | published: 2026-10-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning Colorado's 5th congressional district sits at 28%, making it a decided underdog.
The late money wave described in the news is not yet reflected as a GOP-favorable shift; Polymarket keeps Republicans well below 50% in CO-05.
By contrast, Polymarket prices Republicans at 96% in Ohio's 11th district and 95% in Oklahoma's 3rd, showing the ad dollars are targeting genuinely contested seats.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle following official district election certification.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Republicans have poured over 700 million dollars in late advertising into congressional races as they try to contain midterm losses in challenging districts.exa_search → Ben Kamisar · as_of 2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00
publisher: Ben Kamisar
published_at: 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republicans-fight-red-state-midterm-chaos-hundreds-millions-late-money-rcna601675

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket draws a sharp distinction between safe Republican seats and competitive targets like CO-05, where the party remains a long shot.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/co-05-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xbc533740775ffabd04d60009b45332c2a6f8cba43813bdf7b9577c5d0196a25d

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-co-05-house-seat-polymarket-28-2026-10-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gop-wins-co-05-house-seat-polymarket-28-2026-10-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("gop-wins-co-05-house-seat-polymarket-28-2026-10-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100606",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FMXJH0P4G0",
  "target_event_slug": "co-05-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the CO-05 House seat be won by a Republican in the 2026 election?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning Colorado's 5th congressional district sits at 28%, making it a decided underdog.",
    "The late money wave described in the news is not yet reflected as a GOP-favorable shift; Polymarket keeps Republicans well below 50% in CO-05.",
    "By contrast, Polymarket prices Republicans at 96% in Ohio's 11th district and 95% in Oklahoma's 3rd, showing the ad dollars are targeting genuinely contested seats.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle following official district election certification."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ben Kamisar",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republicans-fight-red-state-midterm-chaos-hundreds-millions-late-money-rcna601675",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Republicans have poured over 700 million dollars in late advertising into congressional races as they try to contain midterm losses in challenging districts.",
      "publisher": "Ben Kamisar",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republicans-fight-red-state-midterm-chaos-hundreds-millions-late-money-rcna601675"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket draws a sharp distinction between safe Republican seats and competitive targets like CO-05, where the party remains a long shot."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/co-05-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ben Kamisar: Republicans fight red-state midterm chaos with hundreds of millions in",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republicans-fight-red-state-midterm-chaos-hundreds-millions-late-money-rcna601675",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100606 published 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-a03e9ad2d32… ← underlying event all signals →