Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by year-end stays below 30%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090304",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T01:45:32.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 27%, reflecting the market's skepticism about near-term de-escalation.",
    "Active US-Iran military exchanges, including Iranian attacks on US bases in Kuwait, are consistent with the market's sub-30% probability on restored waterway traffic.",
    "Trump's claim that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz stands in tension with Iran's continued ability to strike regional targets, which the 27% price reflects.",
    "Resolution depends on an independently verified return to normal Strait of Hormuz transit volumes by December 31, 2026, with no named resolution source specified."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ali Mustafa",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/3/trump-threatens-more-strikes-as-death-toll-in-iran-rises-to-19",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump threatened further strikes on Iran and US forces conducted a second round of attacks in three days on radar and mine-laying systems, while Iran struck US bases in Kuwait with drones and missiles.",
      "publisher": "Ali Mustafa",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T01:45:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/3/trump-threatens-more-strikes-as-death-toll-in-iran-rises-to-19"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract at 27% is the only priced candidate across multiple Iran-Hormuz stories; all related contracts lack disclosed prices."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ali Mustafa: Trump threatens more strikes as death toll in Iran rises to 18 | News",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/3/trump-threatens-more-strikes-as-death-toll-in-iran-rises-to-19",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T01:45:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}