Hormuz July normalization priced as near-certain no

Name: Hormuz July normalization priced as near-certain no
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 1%

record: CMSIG2026072302 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96 | published: 2026-07-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 1% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, 2026.
An IRGC-confirmed tanker explosion and an explicit warning that no vessel will transit are fully consistent with this near-zero near-term probability.
The December 31 Polymarket contract at 50% implies the market sees the second half of 2026 as the only realistic window for de-escalation.
Resolves via UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal traffic', likely benchmarked against pre-conflict transit counts, is the critical settlement question.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported an oil tanker hit by an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, with two vessels turning back and IRGC warning no ships would be allowed to transit.exa_search → aa.com.tr · as_of 2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00
publisher: aa.com.tr
published_at: 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-says-oil-tanker-hit-by-explosion-in-strait-of-hormuz-2-vessels-turn-back/4006383

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 1% on July and 50% on December paint a clear term structure: the market assigns essentially zero chance of near-term resolution.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21d7b32eb529ea455eddba3cf29bfa097112202cbdf5bf21

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-normal-by-july-31-polymarket-1-2026-07-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072302",
  "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 1% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, 2026.",
    "An IRGC-confirmed tanker explosion and an explicit warning that no vessel will transit are fully consistent with this near-zero near-term probability.",
    "The December 31 Polymarket contract at 50% implies the market sees the second half of 2026 as the only realistic window for de-escalation.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal traffic', likely benchmarked against pre-conflict transit counts, is the critical settlement question."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-says-oil-tanker-hit-by-explosion-in-strait-of-hormuz-2-vessels-turn-back/4006383",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran's Revolutionary Guard reported an oil tanker hit by an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, with two vessels turning back and IRGC warning no ships would be allowed to transit.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-says-oil-tanker-hit-by-explosion-in-strait-of-hormuz-2-vessels-turn-back/4006383"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 1% on July and 50% on December paint a clear term structure: the market assigns essentially zero chance of near-term resolution."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says oil tanker hit by explosion in Strait",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-s-revolutionary-guard-says-oil-tanker-hit-by-explosion-in-strait-of-hormuz-2-vessels-turn-back/4006383",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072302 published 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-cf5a2c0ce08… ← underlying event all signals →