Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (25D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 1.4% | $677K | $4.34M | A | 0xb8e6d1…bf21 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (2) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Hormuz July normalization collapses near zero at 1 percent Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 at just 1%, near-certain rejection of a near-term resolution.
- Seven consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Iran's retaliatory attacks on US Gulf bases are fully consistent with this pricing.
- The December 31 contract on the same question sits at 51% on Polymarket, implying the market sees a possible but uncertain longer-run normalization.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle confirming whether Hormuz shipping traffic returns to pre-conflict normal levels by July 31.
- Hormuz normalization by July 31 nears zero pricing Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket prices only 1% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, essentially fully rejecting near-term resolution.
- Active US strikes on northern Iran and Iranian retaliation against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan are consistent with this near-zero pricing.
- The December 31 Polymarket contract on the same question sits at 57%, revealing sharp term-structure doubt concentrated in the next six weeks.
- The 56-percentage-point gap between the July and December contracts indicates markets price significant but not certain longer-run de-escalation.
- July Hormuz normalization nearly fully priced out after mutual strikes Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 at just 1%, effectively fully pricing out near-term resolution.
- Active mutual strikes and Iran's vow to keep the strait closed are fully consistent with this near-zero probability.
- The 55-percentage-point gap between the July contract at 1% and the December contract at 56% maps a steep resolution timeline the market expects to stretch into late 2026.
- Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle; any verifiable return to normal commercial transit volume would trigger resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"maritime-trade",
"energy-security",
"2026",
"normalization-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4338731,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}