Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by June 30 breaks away as near-zero

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062604",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T09:09:34.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 4% on normal Strait of Hormuz traffic returning by end of June, resolving via portwatch.imf.org shipping data.",
    "Iran's strike on an Evergreen vessel and its assertion of control rights are consistent with the near-zero market probability for a rapid normalization.",
    "The market is not fading the disruption headlines; 4% implies the market sees essentially no path to normalization within days.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org transit data by June 30; with only days remaining and active IRGC interdiction, resolution as 'no' appears near-certain."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "dnyuz.com",
          "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/06/26/iran-strikes-vessel-in-strait-of-hormuz-threatening-more-shipping-disruptions/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 26, threatening further shipping disruptions as the IRGC asserts control over the waterway.",
      "publisher": "dnyuz.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T09:09:34.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/06/26/iran-strikes-vessel-in-strait-of-hormuz-threatening-more-shipping-disruptions/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract on Hormuz normalization by June 30; at 4%, the market is fully aligned with ongoing Iranian interdiction activity reported this week."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "dnyuz.com: Iran Strikes Vessel in Strait of Hormuz, Threatening More Shipping Dis",
      "url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/06/26/iran-strikes-vessel-in-strait-of-hormuz-threatening-more-shipping-disruptions/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T09:09:34.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}