Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by the end of June? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $2.19M | $19.28M | A | 0x348cd9…2187 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic normal by June 30 sits at zero pricing Polymarket 0%
- Polymarket prediction market prices 0% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 30.
- Weekend strikes and continued US-Iran disagreement over talks make a same-day Hormuz normalization effectively impossible, consistent with the 0% pricing.
- The Iranian regime survival contract (CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3) at 100% on Polymarket confirms markets see the strikes as contained, not existential, for the current Iranian government.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data by June 30; the unresolved diplomatic standoff reported across multiple wires makes this a near-certain zero at settlement.
- Hormuz normal traffic by June 30 priced as near-impossible Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket prices normal Hormuz traffic by end of June at just 2%, near-zero odds of rapid normalization.
- Mutual US-Iran strikes this week make imminent resumption of normal shipping implausible; the market is fully aligned with the news.
- The Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 15% suggests markets see continued skirmishes, not full war, as the base case.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping data; resolution requires measurable return to baseline transit volumes by June 30.
- Hormuz normal traffic by June 30 near-fully priced out Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket prices only 1% on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30, resolving via portwatch.imf.org.
- US strikes on Iran following a cargo ship attack are consistent with the market's near-zero probability of June normalization.
- With Qatar-hosted Hormuz talks not scheduled until Tuesday and strikes ongoing, the two-day window makes resolution nearly impossible.
- A companion Kalshi contract asks whether the US will invade Iran before 2027; Polymarket prices that at 14%, signaling markets see prolonged tension but not full invasion.
- Hormuz traffic normalization by June 30 fades to near zero Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prices only 5% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June 30, reflecting near-certainty of continued disruption.
- Iran's explicit claim of Hormuz control rights, combined with the US-Iran military exchange, is consistent with the market pricing out near-term normalization.
- The market is pricing this as a durable disruption: the resolution deadline of June 30 is just days away, making the 5% a nearly expired tail.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; 'normal' requires restoration of pre-disruption transit volumes by the deadline.
- Strait of Hormuz normal traffic by June 30 breaks away as near-zero Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices only 4% on normal Strait of Hormuz traffic returning by end of June, resolving via portwatch.imf.org shipping data.
- Iran's strike on an Evergreen vessel and its assertion of control rights are consistent with the near-zero market probability for a rapid normalization.
- The market is not fading the disruption headlines; 4% implies the market sees essentially no path to normalization within days.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org transit data by June 30; with only days remaining and active IRGC interdiction, resolution as 'no' appears near-certain.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by the end of June?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"economy",
"shipping-logistics",
"middle-east",
"energy-markets",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19280719,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}