Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 14%

record: CMSIG2026101907 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-19

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 14% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Diplomatic activity around Iran continues; the 14% Polymarket read suggests markets treat a full traffic normalization by year-end as unlikely despite talks.
Story 24 reports Iran flagged the Strait as reopening with ceasefire conditions still on the table; the 14% odds indicate markets are not pricing that signal as durable.
The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting no direct US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough is priced in to support normalization.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Russia's foreign minister is visiting Iran for talks aimed at averting a return to large-scale war, amid reports of ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.exa_search → Duarte Dias Digital Journalist · as_of 2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00
publisher: Duarte Dias Digital Journalist
published_at: 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-russia-strait-of-hormuz/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle based on verified Strait transit data; 14% reflects skepticism about a durable reopening by year-end.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-10-19/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-10-19.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-14-2026-10-19")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101907",
  "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 14% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Diplomatic activity around Iran continues; the 14% Polymarket read suggests markets treat a full traffic normalization by year-end as unlikely despite talks.",
    "Story 24 reports Iran flagged the Strait as reopening with ceasefire conditions still on the table; the 14% odds indicate markets are not pricing that signal as durable.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting no direct US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough is priced in to support normalization."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Duarte Dias Digital Journalist",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-russia-strait-of-hormuz/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia's foreign minister is visiting Iran for talks aimed at averting a return to large-scale war, amid reports of ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.",
      "publisher": "Duarte Dias Digital Journalist",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-russia-strait-of-hormuz/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle based on verified Strait transit data; 14% reflects skepticism about a durable reopening by year-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Duarte Dias Digital Journalist: Live Updates: Russian foreign minister says he's visiting Iran for tal",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-talks-russia-strait-of-hormuz/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-19T15:14:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101907 published 2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-59fa522dba8… ← underlying event all signals →