Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 20%

record: CMSIG2026100507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket assigns only 20% probability to Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Iran's seven-condition ultimatum for reopening the strait, reported alongside active US military strikes on Iranian targets, is consistent with the market's heavily skeptical pricing.
Simultaneous reports of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Switzerland (Stories 25-26) have not moved the needle toward the optimistic scenario, per the 20% read.
Resolution requires traffic to resume at pre-closure levels; any remaining Iranian blockade condition or continued military activity would sustain the NO outcome.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until seven conditions are met, even as the US conducted heavy strikes on Iranian targets and high-level ceasefire talks opened in Switzerland.exa_search → news.theonlinecitizen.com · as_of 2026-10-05T07:47:16+00:00
publisher: news.theonlinecitizen.com
published_at: 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://news.theonlinecitizen.com/2026/10/05/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-stay-shut-until-its-seven-conditions-are-met

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 20%; market prices the Hormuz reopening as a long shot despite concurrent diplomatic talks, reflecting the active-conflict backdrop.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-10-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-10-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-20-2026-10-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100507",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket assigns only 20% probability to Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's seven-condition ultimatum for reopening the strait, reported alongside active US military strikes on Iranian targets, is consistent with the market's heavily skeptical pricing.",
    "Simultaneous reports of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Switzerland (Stories 25-26) have not moved the needle toward the optimistic scenario, per the 20% read.",
    "Resolution requires traffic to resume at pre-closure levels; any remaining Iranian blockade condition or continued military activity would sustain the NO outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "news.theonlinecitizen.com",
          "source_url": "https://news.theonlinecitizen.com/2026/10/05/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-stay-shut-until-its-seven-conditions-are-met",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T07:47:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until seven conditions are met, even as the US conducted heavy strikes on Iranian targets and high-level ceasefire talks opened in Switzerland.",
      "publisher": "news.theonlinecitizen.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.theonlinecitizen.com/2026/10/05/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-stay-shut-until-its-seven-conditions-are-met"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 20%; market prices the Hormuz reopening as a long shot despite concurrent diplomatic talks, reflecting the active-conflict backdrop."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "news.theonlinecitizen.com: Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay shut until its seven conditions a",
      "url": "https://news.theonlinecitizen.com/2026/10/05/iran-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-stay-shut-until-its-seven-conditions-are-met",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T07:47:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100507 published 2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-7c1dd880577… ← underlying event all signals →