Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 21%

record: CMSIG2026092904 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at only 21%.
Iran's signals of more serious talks and Qatari mediation activity are positive news, yet the Polymarket contract stays well below 50%, showing skepticism about near-term resolution.
A separate Kalshi contract puts only 4% odds on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, underlining how far markets are from pricing a full normalization.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on documented evidence of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by December 31, 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Qatari mediators will present the US with new ideas on Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with contacts described as more serious.exa_search → aa.com.tr · as_of 2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00
publisher: aa.com.tr
published_at: 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-qatar-to-present-us-with-new-ideas-aimed-at-reopening-strait-of-hormuz/4072093

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz normalization by December 31; current 21% price reflects persistent doubt despite active diplomatic signals.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-29/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-29.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-29")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092904",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at only 21%.",
    "Iran's signals of more serious talks and Qatari mediation activity are positive news, yet the Polymarket contract stays well below 50%, showing skepticism about near-term resolution.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract puts only 4% odds on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, underlining how far markets are from pricing a full normalization.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on documented evidence of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-qatar-to-present-us-with-new-ideas-aimed-at-reopening-strait-of-hormuz/4072093",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Qatari mediators will present the US with new ideas on Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with contacts described as more serious.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-qatar-to-present-us-with-new-ideas-aimed-at-reopening-strait-of-hormuz/4072093"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz normalization by December 31; current 21% price reflects persistent doubt despite active diplomatic signals."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Iran says Qatar to present US with new ideas aimed at reopening Strait",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-says-qatar-to-present-us-with-new-ideas-aimed-at-reopening-strait-of-hormuz/4072093",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092904 published 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-f476591ad90… ← underlying event all signals →