Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083105",
  "published_at": "2026-08-31T09:19:40.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 28% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, reflecting persistent disruption risk.",
    "Fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian launchers in the strait and Iranian retaliatory missile fire at U.S. bases in Jordan are consistent with the market's skeptical pricing on a near-term resolution.",
    "The 72% probability of continued disruption through year-end implies markets see the conflict as likely to drag well beyond the current exchange of strikes.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a verifiable return to normal transit volumes; active hostilities make that threshold extremely difficult to satisfy within four months."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/31/iran-attacks-jordan-uae-after-us-bombs-larak-island-whats-the-latest",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran attacked Jordan and UAE after U.S. forces bombed Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the US-Iran military confrontation.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T09:19:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/31/iran-attacks-jordan-uae-after-us-bombs-larak-island-whats-the-latest"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 28% is the only priced contract on Hormuz normalization; with active combat reported today, that figure represents the clearest real-money read on the conflict's trajectory."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Iran attacks Jordan, UAE after US bombs Larak Island: What’s the lates",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/31/iran-attacks-jordan-uae-after-us-bombs-larak-island-whats-the-latest",
      "published_at": "2026-08-31T09:19:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}