Hormuz July normalization collapses near zero at 1 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071705",
  "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by July 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 at just 1%, near-certain rejection of a near-term resolution.",
    "Seven consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Iran's retaliatory attacks on US Gulf bases are fully consistent with this pricing.",
    "The December 31 contract on the same question sits at 51% on Polymarket, implying the market sees a possible but uncertain longer-run normalization.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle confirming whether Hormuz shipping traffic returns to pre-conflict normal levels by July 31."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By                  \n\nNPR Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/17/g-s1-134158/us-iran-war-updates",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US struck bridges and other infrastructure in Iran while Tehran targeted US Gulf bases, with Iran calling the Strait of Hormuz a red line as the conflict intensified.",
      "publisher": "By                  \n\nNPR Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/17/g-s1-134158/us-iran-war-updates"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 1% July versus 51% December spread captures the market's view that near-term normalization is essentially ruled out but year-end resolution remains a coin flip."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By                  \n\nNPR Staff: U.S. strikes bridges in Iran; Tehran targets U.S. bases in the Gulf  :",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/07/17/g-s1-134158/us-iran-war-updates",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}