Hormuz traffic normal by June 30 sits at zero pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062906",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T20:14:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
  "event_question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prediction market prices 0% odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 30.",
    "Weekend strikes and continued US-Iran disagreement over talks make a same-day Hormuz normalization effectively impossible, consistent with the 0% pricing.",
    "The Iranian regime survival contract (CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3) at 100% on Polymarket confirms markets see the strikes as contained, not existential, for the current Iranian government.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data by June 30; the unresolved diplomatic standoff reported across multiple wires makes this a near-certain zero at settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Christian Science Monitor",
          "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0629/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-violations-hormuz-control",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and Iran pulled back from escalating weekend strikes near the Strait of Hormuz but remain at odds over the terms and format of any further negotiations.",
      "publisher": "The Christian Science Monitor",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T20:14:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0629/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-violations-hormuz-control"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via portwatch.imf.org; with no diplomatic breakthrough confirmed as of June 30, the 0% pricing aligns fully with current reported conditions."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Christian Science Monitor: Hormuz flare-up signals lasting fragility of US-Iran ceasefire - CSMon",
      "url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0629/trump-iran-war-ceasefire-violations-hormuz-control",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T20:14:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}