Hormuz normalization by year-end stays a long shot at 19%

Name: Hormuz normalization by year-end stays a long shot at 19%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 19%

record: CMSIG2026100608 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-10-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 prices at 19%, well below an even-money read.
The Saudi-led coalition's military escalation in Yemen and Houthi strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Aramco facilities signal the conflict is broadening, not resolving.
Iran's rejection of US diplomatic talks (Story 26) reinforces the low probability of a near-term Hormuz normalization.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal' Hormuz traffic and the verification source are critical settlement considerations.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Yemen government forces recaptured the Red Sea port of Mokha from Houthis as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan agreed to deploy forces and activate deterrence measures, keeping oil markets on edge.exa_search → Sam Meredith · as_of 2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00
publisher: Sam Meredith
published_at: 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/iran-war-yemen-saudi-arabia-mokha-oil.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 19% reflects the market's consistent view that Hormuz normalization by year-end is unlikely amid active regional escalation.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-traffic-to-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-19-2026-10-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100608",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 prices at 19%, well below an even-money read.",
    "The Saudi-led coalition's military escalation in Yemen and Houthi strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Aramco facilities signal the conflict is broadening, not resolving.",
    "Iran's rejection of US diplomatic talks (Story 26) reinforces the low probability of a near-term Hormuz normalization.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the definition of 'normal' Hormuz traffic and the verification source are critical settlement considerations."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sam Meredith",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/iran-war-yemen-saudi-arabia-mokha-oil.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Yemen government forces recaptured the Red Sea port of Mokha from Houthis as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan agreed to deploy forces and activate deterrence measures, keeping oil markets on edge.",
      "publisher": "Sam Meredith",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/iran-war-yemen-saudi-arabia-mokha-oil.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 19% reflects the market's consistent view that Hormuz normalization by year-end is unlikely amid active regional escalation."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sam Meredith: Iran war: Yemen forces reclaim Red Sea port city of Mokha from Houthis",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/iran-war-yemen-saudi-arabia-mokha-oil.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100608 published 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-d70541e7606… ← underlying event all signals →