Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds

Name: Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 29%

record: CMSIG2026062303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-8SWDJJDJM0 | published: 2026-06-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by July 31 at only 29%.
Iran's explicit denial of enrichment concessions is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing well below 50%.
The June 30 enrichment-halt contract sits at 24%, nearly identical to July 31, suggesting the market sees little incremental probability of a deal in that extra month.
Resolves via UMA oracle; what counts as 'agreeing to end enrichment' versus a pause or cap is a live definitional risk.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US waived Iran sanctions after Switzerland talks, but Iran publicly denied it had begun dismantling its nuclear program.exa_search → Mia Gonzalez · as_of 2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00
publisher: Mia Gonzalez
published_at: 2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z
source_url: https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 29% on enrichment halt by July 31 reflects the market's reading that sanctions relief does not automatically translate to Iranian nuclear concessions.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-july-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x151b13b0d75a282ea864a2835963c0164c03e8fa3064c4d44026e3af5f2ff8d4

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-ends-enrichment-by-july-31-polymarket-29-2026-06-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062303",
  "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8SWDJJDJM0",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by July 31 at only 29%.",
    "Iran's explicit denial of enrichment concessions is consistent with the market's skeptical pricing well below 50%.",
    "The June 30 enrichment-halt contract sits at 24%, nearly identical to July 31, suggesting the market sees little incremental probability of a deal in that extra month.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; what counts as 'agreeing to end enrichment' versus a pause or cap is a live definitional risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mia Gonzalez",
          "source_url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US waived Iran sanctions after Switzerland talks, but Iran publicly denied it had begun dismantling its nuclear program.",
      "publisher": "Mia Gonzalez",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 29% on enrichment halt by July 31 reflects the market's reading that sanctions relief does not automatically translate to Iranian nuclear concessions."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-july-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mia Gonzalez: US waives Iran sanctions, Trump says he will 'do what I have to' if Te",
      "url": "https://www.rappler.com/world/us-iran-peace-deal-updates-june-23-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-23T10:59:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062303 published 2026-06-23T05:22:42.000Z signature sha256-84e1bd959a0… ← underlying event all signals →