Iran enrichment end by December pricing holds near a coin flip

Name: Iran enrichment end by December pricing holds near a coin flip
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 46%

record: CMSIG2026061806 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77 | published: 2026-06-18

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket prediction market prices 46% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
Republican criticism of the MoU and unresolved technical gaps are consistent with a market that refuses to price a done deal despite the Islamabad signing ceremony.
The deal calls for diluting Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile at minimum, stopping short of full enrichment cessation, which the 54% no-pricing reflects.
The June 30 enrichment-end contract (CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8) sits at only 24%, revealing the market assigns far higher probability to a December outcome than a June one, a clear term structure discount.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Republican backlash to Trump's Iran MoU and ongoing technical issues indicate the path to a full uranium enrichment halt remains contested and uncertain.exa_search → Erin Hale · as_of 2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00
publisher: Erin Hale
published_at: 2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/trumps-iran-framework-draws-backlash-from-some-republicans

[02] pm_response

interp: The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the distinction between dilution of existing stockpiles and a formal enrichment halt is likely a key resolution edge case.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-46-2026-06-18/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-46-2026-06-18.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-ends-uranium-enrichment-by-dec-31-polymarket-46-2026-06-18")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061806",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices 46% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.",
    "Republican criticism of the MoU and unresolved technical gaps are consistent with a market that refuses to price a done deal despite the Islamabad signing ceremony.",
    "The deal calls for diluting Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile at minimum, stopping short of full enrichment cessation, which the 54% no-pricing reflects.",
    "The June 30 enrichment-end contract (CM-EVT-73D6P1DKY8) sits at only 24%, revealing the market assigns far higher probability to a December outcome than a June one, a clear term structure discount."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Erin Hale",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/trumps-iran-framework-draws-backlash-from-some-republicans",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Republican backlash to Trump's Iran MoU and ongoing technical issues indicate the path to a full uranium enrichment halt remains contested and uncertain.",
      "publisher": "Erin Hale",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/trumps-iran-framework-draws-backlash-from-some-republicans"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the distinction between dilution of existing stockpiles and a formal enrichment halt is likely a key resolution edge case."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Erin Hale: Trump’s MoU with Iran draws backlash from some Republicans | US-Israel",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/trumps-iran-framework-draws-backlash-from-some-republicans",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061806 published 2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-9bfe9ca355d… ← underlying event all signals →