Iran leadership change by September 30 sits at 11% on fresh bets

Name: Iran leadership change by September 30 sits at 11% on fresh bets
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-25T09:43:16+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

11% · $28K 24h

record: CMSIG20260725VS07 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-TYRP27H901 | published: 2026-07-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices an Iran leadership change by September 30 at 11%, elevated tail risk but not a base case.
$28K in 24h marks 25% of all-time volume, exactly at the quarter-lifetime threshold, indicating renewed interest.
Re-engagement at 11% likely reflects escalating regional tension, sanctions news, or internal political reporting.
Contract resolves on a confirmed change in Iran's supreme leader or presidential office before September 30, 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $28.2K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/iran-leadership-change-by/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x094772b3529f455e881a4483eaf1c24266384f55e97c23f24f638f5726ba9920

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-september-30-vol-28164/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iran-leadership-change-by-september-30-vol-28164.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iran-leadership-change-by-september-30-vol-28164")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260725VS07",
  "published_at": "2026-07-25T09:43:16+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYRP27H901",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-leadership-change-by",
  "event_question": "Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an Iran leadership change by September 30 at 11%, elevated tail risk but not a base case.",
    "$28K in 24h marks 25% of all-time volume, exactly at the quarter-lifetime threshold, indicating renewed interest.",
    "Re-engagement at 11% likely reflects escalating regional tension, sanctions news, or internal political reporting.",
    "Contract resolves on a confirmed change in Iran's supreme leader or presidential office before September 30, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 28164.611718999997
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-leadership-change-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Iran's leadership change by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leadership-change-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:43:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260725VS07 published 2026-07-25T09:43:16+00:00 signature sha256-da789263a12… ← underlying event all signals →