Iranian regime survival after US strikes commands full pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062802",
  "published_at": "2026-06-28T21:58:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime survive any U.S. military strikes?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Iranian regime surviving US military strikes at 100%, resolving via uma_oracle.",
    "Mutual strike-and-halt sequence, with both sides accusing ceasefire violations, is fully consistent with the market's certainty of regime survival.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices Iran ending uranium enrichment by June 30 at just 1%, and by December 31 at 28%, signaling regime continuity without disarmament.",
    "Polymarket's 'US invades Iran before 2027' contract sits at 14%, suggesting markets treat the current conflict as contained below full-invasion threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TOI World Desk  / TIMESOFINDIA.COM /   Jun 29, 2026, 03:28 IST",
          "source_url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and Iran agreed to halt attacks after counter-strikes, with Qatar set to host Hormuz talks, but the Iranian regime remained intact throughout the exchange.",
      "publisher": "TOI World Desk  / TIMESOFINDIA.COM /   Jun 29, 2026, 03:28 IST",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T21:58:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; 100% pricing reflects no credible path to regime collapse within the current conflict arc."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TOI World Desk  / TIMESOFINDIA.COM /   Jun 29, 2026, 03:28 IST: US, Iran agree to halt attacks after counter-strikes; Qatar to host Ho",
      "url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-iran-agree-to-halt-attacks-after-counter-strikes-qatar-to-host-hormuz-talks-on-tuesday/articleshow/132058740.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T21:58:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}