Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $33K | $1.09M | C | 0xefc69f…c986 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- a broad consensus of reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iranian regime survival consensus holds at full pricing Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket prices the Iranian regime surviving US military strikes at 100%, a near-certainty read.
- US-Iran mutual stand-down announcement is fully consistent with this pricing; no regime collapse implied by either side.
- Companion Polymarket contract on US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at just 14%, reinforcing a limited-strikes, not regime-change, scenario.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; key edge case is definition of 'survive' -- regime continuity, not territorial or leadership changes.
- Iranian regime survival after US strikes commands full pricing Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket prices the Iranian regime surviving US military strikes at 100%, resolving via uma_oracle.
- Mutual strike-and-halt sequence, with both sides accusing ceasefire violations, is fully consistent with the market's certainty of regime survival.
- A companion Polymarket contract prices Iran ending uranium enrichment by June 30 at just 1%, and by December 31 at 28%, signaling regime continuity without disarmament.
- Polymarket's 'US invades Iran before 2027' contract sits at 14%, suggesting markets treat the current conflict as contained below full-invasion threshold.
- Iranian regime survival after US strikes anchors at certainty Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket prices Iranian regime survival at 100%, treating regime collapse from US strikes as fully off the table.
- US strikes followed Iran's drone attack on a cargo ship; the market reads the exchange as below the threshold for existential threat to Tehran.
- Separately, the Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at only 15%, consistent with a tit-for-tat read rather than full escalation.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; contract tests whether the Islamic Republic government structure survives any US military engagement.
- Iranian regime survival through US strikes nears full pricing Polymarket 97%
- Polymarket prices 97% on the Iranian regime surviving any US military strikes.
- Second-day US strikes and Iranian IRGC ballistic missile retaliation are consistent with the market's near-certain pricing of regime survival, the exchange of fire implies neither side is pursuing regime-change outcomes.
- A companion Polymarket contract prices 14% on the Iranian regime falling by December 31, 2026, revealing the market treats military strikes and regime collapse as largely decoupled events.
- Resolves via uma_oracle assessment of regime continuity; the key settlement question is what constitutes 'regime survival' if Iran undergoes leadership transition under duress.
- Iranian regime survival consensus anchors near certainty Polymarket 97%
- Polymarket prices Iranian regime survival of US military strikes at 97%, near-certain even as exchanges escalate.
- Active tit-for-tat US-Iran strikes are consistent with this high survival probability; markets are not treating current exchanges as existential for the regime.
- The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on Iranian regime collapse by December 31, 2026 sits at only 14%, reinforcing the consensus that current strikes are limited in scope.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; regime survival likely requires continued state-functioning evidence rather than any single military outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
"slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
"question": "Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-us-relations",
"military-conflict",
"regime-stability",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1087955,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a broad consensus of reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}