Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures below one-third

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061704",
  "published_at": "2026-06-17T11:24:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
  "target_event_slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30 at only 31%, despite deal-leak headlines pointing to Strait reopening.",
    "Markets are treating the leak as incomplete; deal signing, Iranian compliance, and physical vessel movement all remain separate hurdles within 13 days.",
    "The December 31 Hormuz normalization contract on Polymarket sits at 78%, indicating markets believe reopening is likely eventually but not imminent.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; 'unrestricted shipping' language likely requires verified transit data, not just a signed agreement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "spectrumlocalnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/international/2026/06/17/iran-united-states-war-israel-lebanon-negotiations-strait-hormuz-oil-tentative-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Leaked deal terms show Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and retain oil export rights as part of a US-Iran ceasefire framework.",
      "publisher": "spectrumlocalnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T11:24:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/international/2026/06/17/iran-united-states-war-israel-lebanon-negotiations-strait-hormuz-oil-tentative-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 31% June 30 versus 78% December 31 spread on Polymarket is the key cross-contract signal on Hormuz reopening timeline risk."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "spectrumlocalnews.com: Iran to reopen Strait, can sell oil in deal, per leaks",
      "url": "https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/international/2026/06/17/iran-united-states-war-israel-lebanon-negotiations-strait-hormuz-oil-tentative-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T11:24:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}