Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $50K | $174K | C | 0x1723b7…bd68 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the government of Iran from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures Polymarket 31%
- Polymarket prices 31% on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30, a below-even probability with four days remaining in the window.
- The drone strike on a commercial vessel is directly at odds with the near-term resolution scenario the 31% price implies.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 prices at 78%, showing the market sees eventual normalization but not before month-end.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the July 31 traffic-return contract at 47% and the December contract at 78% reveal a market pricing a multi-month delay, not a near-term fix.
- Hormuz unrestricted shipping by June 30 pricing fractures Polymarket 31%
- Polymarket prices Iran formally agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 at 31%, well below even odds with 8 days left.
- Progress in Switzerland is real but the headline roadmap targets 60 days, not 8, making the June 30 bar difficult to clear.
- A companion Polymarket contract asking only whether any ships transit by June 30 sits at 28%, nearly identical, suggesting markets see partial reopening as nearly as unlikely as a full agreement.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; the requirement is a formal Iranian agreement on unrestricted passage, not merely resumed negotiations or transit of a single vessel.
- Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures below one-third Polymarket 31%
- Polymarket prices unrestricted Iran shipping through Hormuz by June 30 at only 31%, despite deal-leak headlines pointing to Strait reopening.
- Markets are treating the leak as incomplete; deal signing, Iranian compliance, and physical vessel movement all remain separate hurdles within 13 days.
- The December 31 Hormuz normalization contract on Polymarket sits at 78%, indicating markets believe reopening is likely eventually but not imminent.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; 'unrestricted shipping' language likely requires verified transit data, not just a signed agreement.
- Iran agreeing to open Hormuz by June 30 priced a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket contract puts 13% on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30.
- Fresh Iranian strikes on Kuwait and US counter-strikes on Qeshm Island are consistent with this low probability.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz returning to normal by end of June sits at 20%, showing minimal upside even on a longer window.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; physical shipping normalisation, not just a ceasefire statement, is required.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FP5Q8518G7",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Iran agree to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-trade",
"2026",
"international-relations"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 173990,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the government of Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}