Iranian regime survival after US strikes commands near-certain pricing

Name: Iranian regime survival after US strikes commands near-certain pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 97%

record: CMSIG2026060305 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3 | published: 2026-06-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 97% chance the Iranian regime survives any U.S. military strikes.
Despite confirmed U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island and Iranian missile attacks on Gulf neighbors, the market treats regime survival as near-certain.
A companion Polymarket contract on a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at just 17%, consistent with the regime survival pricing.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; criteria for regime 'fall' would need to be met, not merely territorial strikes or leadership changes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain while the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, escalating Gulf hostilities.exa_search → Al Jazeera Staff · as_of 2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00
publisher: Al Jazeera Staff
published_at: 2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/3/iran-kuwait-bahrain-hit-is-the-war-in-the-gulf-escalating-again

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 97% survival price holds firm against active strike escalation, with the invasion contract at 17% providing a corroborating signal.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-03.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("iranian-regime-survives-us-strikes-polymarket-97-2026-06-03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060305",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741",
  "event_question": "Will the Iranian regime survive any U.S. military strikes?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 97% chance the Iranian regime survives any U.S. military strikes.",
    "Despite confirmed U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island and Iranian missile attacks on Gulf neighbors, the market treats regime survival as near-certain.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at just 17%, consistent with the regime survival pricing.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; criteria for regime 'fall' would need to be met, not merely territorial strikes or leadership changes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/3/iran-kuwait-bahrain-hit-is-the-war-in-the-gulf-escalating-again",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain while the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, escalating Gulf hostilities.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/3/iran-kuwait-bahrain-hit-is-the-war-in-the-gulf-escalating-again"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 97% survival price holds firm against active strike escalation, with the invasion contract at 17% providing a corroborating signal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain hit: Is the war in the Gulf escalating again? |",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/3/iran-kuwait-bahrain-hit-is-the-war-in-the-gulf-escalating-again",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060305 published 2026-06-03T11:42:59.000Z signature sha256-a8889dd9240… ← underlying event all signals →