July Fed hike pricing wavers below 4 percent upper bound

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070601",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% chance above 3.50%, only 29% above 3.75%.",
    "Waller's hawkish Rome remarks are consistent with the ladder's 3.50-3.75% modal read, but markets are not fully pricing a hike to 4% or above.",
    "The sharp drop from 91% to 29% between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes signals meaningful uncertainty about whether the Fed actually pulls the trigger above current levels.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract puts only 10% on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing that the dominant scenario is hold or modest hike, not easing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradevae.com",
          "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller told a Rome economics conference that inflation has replaced labor-market weakness as the central bank's primary risk, signaling openness to a July rate hike.",
      "publisher": "tradevae.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers the July 2026 FOMC decision; the 3.75% strike at 29% is the key threshold separating the base case from a full hike."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradevae.com: Waller Says Inflation Now the Primary Risk as U.S. Labor Market Stabil",
      "url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}