Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.75 to 4 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072401",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "July 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75%, only 12% above 4.0%.",
    "News portrays the July decision as genuinely unpredictable; the Kalshi distribution confirms it, with sharp probability drop-off above 3.75% signaling majority bets on a hold near current levels.",
    "Trading volume on this Kalshi ladder surged 396x day-over-day, the strongest signal of fresh market attention in this batch.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) implies a tighter 3.5-3.75% range at 99% above 3.5% but only 26% above 3.75%, suggesting some disagreement on the precise terminal level across contracts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usatoday.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2026/07/24/july-fed-meeting-interest-rates-what-to-expect/91007839007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Media coverage highlights deep uncertainty over whether the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh will hike or hold at its July meeting, with mixed economic signals fueling the debate.",
      "publisher": "usatoday.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2026/07/24/july-fed-meeting-interest-rates-what-to-expect/91007839007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder pricing, supported by a massive 39,567% volume surge, shows the market is treating the July Fed decision as nearly resolved around 3.75%, not 4.0%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usatoday.com: Hike or hold? Why the Fed's July interest rate decision is hard to pre",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2026/07/24/july-fed-meeting-interest-rates-what-to-expect/91007839007/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}