Fed funds above 4 percent stays a coin flip after July meeting

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072701",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound after July 2026 meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-July Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4.0%, pricing 81% above 3.50% but only 48% above 4.0%.",
    "News that 9 of 19 FOMC members favor higher rates is consistent with the ladder's near-coin-flip at 4.0%, reflecting genuine committee division.",
    "The 3.50% strike at 81% confirms markets see no rate cut; the question is whether Warsh delivers a hike, not a hold.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 pins a prior meeting's outcome at 3.50-3.75% at 99% above 3.50%, suggesting any hike at the July meeting would be a first move in the current cycle."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "David Dierking",
          "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/27/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-committee-higher-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With 9 of 19 Fed members signaling higher rates and the July 28-29 meeting imminent, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a divided committee on whether to break a six-meeting hold streak.",
      "publisher": "David Dierking",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/27/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-committee-higher-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution shows the July decision is genuinely open between hold at 3.75% and a hike to 4.0%, with near-even odds at the 4.0% strike."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "David Dierking: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces a Committee Where 9 of 19 Members Are Sign",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/27/fed-chair-kevin-warsh-committee-higher-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}