Fed funds upper bound hardens around 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060601",
  "published_at": "2026-06-06T00:59:05.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (next meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "Hot 172K May payrolls print and hike-talk headlines are consistent with the distribution, market sees 3.50% as near-certain floor, 4.00% as a long shot at 15%.",
    "The sharp cliff from 91% to 34% at the 3.75% strike signals markets price a hold or modest move, not an aggressive hike cycle.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50) prices 98% above 3.50% but collapses to 2% above 3.75%, confirming the 3.50-3.75% consensus is robust across contracts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "by",
          "source_url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/06/06/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A strong May jobs report of 172,000 payrolls has fueled bets that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to hike rates rather than cut.",
      "publisher": "by",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T00:59:05.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/06/06/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the tight 3.50-3.75% consensus persists across multiple Fed-rate contracts."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "by: Hot jobs report puts Fed cuts further out of reach as Chair Warsh face",
      "url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/06/06/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T00:59:05.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}