June Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.5 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061001",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 91% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "Hot May CPI is consistent with rates staying well above 3.50%, but the market is not aggressively pricing a move above 3.75% despite the inflation shock.",
    "The 3.75% strike at 34% signals the distribution has a real upper tail, Warsh's first meeting carries more uncertainty than a routine hold.",
    "A second Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-RJ6SMJGK50) shows the longer-horizon upper bound firmly at 3.50-3.75%, with only 2% above 3.75%, suggesting the near-term tail fades quickly in time."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Celine Provini",
          "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May CPI hit a 3-year high driven by Iran war energy shocks, resetting Fed rate-cut expectations ahead of new Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting.",
      "publisher": "Celine Provini",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via the Fed's own target-range announcement; the sharp drop from 91% at 3.50% to 34% at 3.75% is the key distribution signal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Celine Provini: Hot CPI Resets Fed Rate-Cut Bets Ahead of Warsh Meeting - TheStreet",
      "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}