Fed funds upper bound seen pinned at 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061004",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, with 91% probability above 3.50% but only 15% above 4.00%.",
    "Blowout jobs data and rising inflation expectations are consistent with the market holding rates higher for longer, though a full hike to 4.00% or above still registers well below 20%.",
    "A separate Kalshi ladder for a subsequent meeting (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows 95% above 3.50% but only 14% above 3.75%, confirming the market sees 3.50-3.75% as a durable holding zone.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; the sharp drop from 91% to 15% at the 4.00% strike is the key distribution signal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Keith Speights, The Motley Fool      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 3:35 AM EDT   5 min read",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/blowout-jobs-numbers-just-made-073500605.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Blowout May jobs numbers have complicated Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's position and raised the prospect of a rate hike showdown with President Trump.",
      "publisher": "Keith Speights, The Motley Fool      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 3:35 AM EDT   5 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/blowout-jobs-numbers-just-made-073500605.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution clusters tightly at 3.50-3.75% across multiple meeting ladders, with the strong jobs print keeping any near-term cut off the table while a hike above 4.00% remains a low-probability tail."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Keith Speights, The Motley Fool      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 3:35 AM EDT   5 min read: Blowout Jobs Numbers Just Made Kevin Warsh's Job Much Harder -- and Pu",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/blowout-jobs-numbers-just-made-073500605.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}