Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.5 to 3.75 percent after June meeting

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061505",
  "published_at": "2026-06-15T10:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "June 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 95% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%.",
    "A rate hold at the June meeting is consistent with this distribution, as the implied rate sits below the current 4.25-4.50% bound cited in the news, reflecting prior cuts already priced.",
    "The dissent contract on Kalshi at 67% suggests markets see the June decision as contentious even if the rate level itself is not in dispute.",
    "The longer-horizon ladder showing only 8% above 4.25% confirms markets have fully priced out a return to the prior rate regime through this cycle."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jennifer Schonberger     ·  Senior Reporter     Mon 15 June 2026 at 8:00 pm GMT+10   6 min read",
          "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-this-week-as-rate-hike-talks-heat-up-and-us-strikes-a-deal-with-iran-100000734.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its June meeting as May CPI spiked to 4.2% and rate hike talk intensifies.",
      "publisher": "Jennifer Schonberger     ·  Senior Reporter     Mon 15 June 2026 at 8:00 pm GMT+10   6 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T10:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-this-week-as-rate-hike-talks-heat-up-and-us-strikes-a-deal-with-iran-100000734.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution reflects a market that has already priced substantial prior easing; the June hold narrative is consistent with but does not shift the implied rate range."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jennifer Schonberger     ·  Senior Reporter     Mon 15 June 2026 at 8:00 pm GMT+10   6 min read: Fed expected to hold rates steady this week as rate hike talks heat up",
      "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-this-week-as-rate-hike-talks-heat-up-and-us-strikes-a-deal-with-iran-100000734.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-15T10:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}