Fed funds upper bound consensus anchors at 3.5-3.75 percent
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026061801 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 | published: 2026-06-18
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 95% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%.
- Xinhua confirmed the Fed held at 3.50-3.75%; the prediction market distribution is fully consistent with that reported hold.
- The 36% probability above 3.75% reflects policymaker signals of one hike later this year, not full consensus for a move.
- The Kalshi large-cut contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) prices only 7% on a cut exceeding 25 bps, confirming the hawkish lean from the dot-plot shift.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, with policymakers signaling support for a future hike.exa_search → english.news.cn · as_of 2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- english.news.cn
- published_at
- 2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi's rate ladder resolves via Fed policy statement and matches the reported 3.50-3.75% hold with a modest hike tail priced in.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxfed-26sep/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-18/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-18.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-06-18") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026061801",
"published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
"target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
"event_question": "Fed funds upper bound post-June 2026",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 95% above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%.",
"Xinhua confirmed the Fed held at 3.50-3.75%; the prediction market distribution is fully consistent with that reported hold.",
"The 36% probability above 3.75% reflects policymaker signals of one hike later this year, not full consensus for a move.",
"The Kalshi large-cut contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) prices only 7% on a cut exceeding 25 bps, confirming the hawkish lean from the dot-plot shift."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "english.news.cn",
"source_url": "https://english.news.cn/20260618/77b4170f2c984fb6a11ae4f89c677c87/c.html",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% at Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, with policymakers signaling support for a future hike.",
"publisher": "english.news.cn",
"published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://english.news.cn/20260618/77b4170f2c984fb6a11ae4f89c677c87/c.html"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi's rate ladder resolves via Fed policy statement and matches the reported 3.50-3.75% hold with a modest hike tail priced in."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "english.news.cn: U.S. Fed holds interest rate steady-Xinhua",
"url": "https://english.news.cn/20260618/77b4170f2c984fb6a11ae4f89c677c87/c.html",
"published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1