Fed funds upper bound consensus anchors near 3.5 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070901",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T13:25:27.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound (post-June 2026 meeting)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound firmly in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50% but only 14% above 3.75%.",
    "Hawkish Fed minutes citing inflation worry align with the pricing floor above 3.50%, but the market is not pricing meaningful odds of a hike above 3.75%.",
    "Retail sales beating expectations and jobless claims at 215,000 both reduce urgency for cuts, consistent with the rate staying in this corridor.",
    "Resolution turns on the official post-meeting Federal Reserve rate announcement; the sharp drop from 98% to 14% between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes marks the market's conviction boundary."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Matt Wasielewski, National",
          "source_url": "https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/hot-inflation-led-some-fed-officials-to-float-a-rate-hike-in-june-minutes-show-135359",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes show growing inflation worry under Chair Kevin Warsh, with hawkish commentary keeping pressure on borrowing costs including in commercial real estate financing.",
      "publisher": "Matt Wasielewski, National",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T13:25:27.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/hot-inflation-led-some-fed-officials-to-float-a-rate-hike-in-june-minutes-show-135359"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers the full upper-bound distribution; the 84-percentage-point gap between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes is the defining signal in this contract."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Matt Wasielewski, National: Fed's Hawkish Minutes Keep Pressure On CRE Financing",
      "url": "https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/hot-inflation-led-some-fed-officials-to-float-a-rate-hike-in-june-minutes-show-135359",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T13:25:27.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}