Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 near full pricing after FOMC divide

Name: Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 near full pricing after FOMC divide
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026070901 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 | published: 2026-07-09

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder pins the implied Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 98% above 3.50% but only 20% above 3.75%.
FOMC minutes flagged inflation risks from tariffs, Iran conflict, and AI buildout, consistent with a hold but not a hike; trading volume on this contract rose 522x day over day, signaling sharp fresh attention.
The distribution shows near-zero probability above 4.0%, meaning markets are absorbing the hawkish rhetoric without pricing actual hikes this cycle.
The 7% Kalshi probability on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) confirms the market sees the Fed frozen, not easing, despite the divide narrative.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: FOMC minutes revealed a deep divide among policymakers over whether tariffs, the Iran war, and AI investment could force rate hikes later in 2026.exa_search → AOL · as_of 2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00
publisher: AOL
published_at: 2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.aol.com/finance/fomc-minutes-expose-deep-divide-111700425.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; volume surge of 522x day over day confirms this is the primary instrument drawing new capital on the FOMC minutes story.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26jul/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-09/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-09.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-09")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070901",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, next meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the implied Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range, pricing 98% above 3.50% but only 20% above 3.75%.",
    "FOMC minutes flagged inflation risks from tariffs, Iran conflict, and AI buildout, consistent with a hold but not a hike; trading volume on this contract rose 522x day over day, signaling sharp fresh attention.",
    "The distribution shows near-zero probability above 4.0%, meaning markets are absorbing the hawkish rhetoric without pricing actual hikes this cycle.",
    "The 7% Kalshi probability on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) confirms the market sees the Fed frozen, not easing, despite the divide narrative."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/finance/fomc-minutes-expose-deep-divide-111700425.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FOMC minutes revealed a deep divide among policymakers over whether tariffs, the Iran war, and AI investment could force rate hikes later in 2026.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/finance/fomc-minutes-expose-deep-divide-111700425.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; volume surge of 522x day over day confirms this is the primary instrument drawing new capital on the FOMC minutes story."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: FOMC minutes expose deep divide over interest-rate outlook at Warsh's",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/finance/fomc-minutes-expose-deep-divide-111700425.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070901 published 2026-07-09T11:17:00.000Z signature sha256-7b277c0469a… ← underlying event all signals →