Fed funds upper bound seen anchored at 3.5 to 3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061001",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after June 2026 FOMC",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the June 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 34% above 3.75%.",
    "May CPI hitting a three-year high is consistent with the market firmly ruling out any cut from the current 4.25-4.50% range, the implied mode is well below current rates, signaling cuts are priced but not imminent.",
    "A separate Kalshi binary puts 70% on the Fed holding at 4.25-4.50% with at least one dissent at the next meeting, reinforcing the ladder's central tendency.",
    "Resolution uses the Federal Reserve's post-meeting rate announcement; any split decision or emergency action between now and the meeting date would reprice both markets simultaneously."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Celine Provini",
          "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May CPI surged to a three-year high driven by Iran-war energy shocks, resetting Fed rate-cut expectations ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming meeting.",
      "publisher": "Celine Provini",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution shows market consensus squarely in the 3.50-3.75% band for the Fed funds upper bound following the June FOMC, with tail risk above 3.75% priced at only 34%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Celine Provini: Hot CPI Resets Fed Rate-Cut Bets Ahead of Warsh Meeting - TheStreet",
      "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/fed/hot-may-cpi-sticks-a-pin-in-fed-rate-cut-bets",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T23:17:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}