June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent

Name: June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026063001 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2 | published: 2026-06-30

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.9%, 69% above 4.2%, only 37% above 4.3%, implying consensus squarely in the 4.2-4.3% range.
Volume surged 115x day-over-day on this contract, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention as the JOLTS and ADP prints landed.
ADP private payrolls came in at 98,000, missing expectations, consistent with the market tilting toward the higher end of the 4.2-4.3% band.
Resolves via FRED data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the official June U-3 figure settles the contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: US job openings rose to a two-year high in June while hiring remained sluggish, painting a split labor-market picture ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls release.exa_search → Reuters · as_of 2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00
publisher: Reuters
published_at: 2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z
source_url: https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder on June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate drew exceptional volume, making this the sharpest labor-market signal in today's prediction-market prints.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxu3-26jun/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3-26JUN-T4.3

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063001",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.9%, 69% above 4.2%, only 37% above 4.3%, implying consensus squarely in the 4.2-4.3% range.",
    "Volume surged 115x day-over-day on this contract, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention as the JOLTS and ADP prints landed.",
    "ADP private payrolls came in at 98,000, missing expectations, consistent with the market tilting toward the higher end of the 4.2-4.3% band.",
    "Resolves via FRED data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the official June U-3 figure settles the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US job openings rose to a two-year high in June while hiring remained sluggish, painting a split labor-market picture ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls release.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate drew exceptional volume, making this the sharpest labor-market signal in today's prediction-market prints."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxu3-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: US Job Openings Rise to Two-Year High, but Hiring Still Struggling - G",
      "url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026063001 published 2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z signature sha256-e3e4098f1b1… ← underlying event all signals →