Private payrolls above 100K in May sits near a coin flip

Name: Private payrolls above 100K in May sits near a coin flip
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 41%

record: CMSIG2026060303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3 | published: 2026-06-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi implies May payrolls in the 90k-100k range: 53% above 90k but only 41% above 100k.
The ADP print of 122k prints above the Kalshi market-implied midpoint, suggesting the prediction market was positioned cautiously.
The 80% probability above 30k confirms the market ruled out a severe miss well before the print.
A companion ladder for October 2026 payrolls implies 70k-80k, suggesting market expects hiring to decelerate further.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: ADP reported May private sector employment rose 122,000, with annual pay up 4.4% year-over-year.exa_search → ADP, Inc. · as_of 2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00
publisher: ADP, Inc.
published_at: 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org official payroll data release.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26may/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-private-payrolls-seen-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-private-payrolls-seen-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("may-2026-private-payrolls-seen-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060303",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 private payrolls added",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi implies May payrolls in the 90k-100k range: 53% above 90k but only 41% above 100k.",
    "The ADP print of 122k prints above the Kalshi market-implied midpoint, suggesting the prediction market was positioned cautiously.",
    "The 80% probability above 30k confirms the market ruled out a severe miss well before the print.",
    "A companion ladder for October 2026 payrolls implies 70k-80k, suggesting market expects hiring to decelerate further."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ADP, Inc.",
          "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP reported May private sector employment rose 122,000, with annual pay up 4.4% year-over-year.",
      "publisher": "ADP, Inc.",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org official payroll data release."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26may/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ADP, Inc.: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060303 published 2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z signature sha256-e32f5b47de4… ← underlying event all signals →